COMPLETE STATIC READING EDITION

The bullet-lead evidence

The test that said “two bullets,” and the scientists who said it couldn’t

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What the test said

The two-bullet finding.

Neutron activation measures trace elements in bullet lead. Testing for the House committee, Guinn compared CE 399 with the fragments. The committee concluded it was “highly likely” the wrist fragments came from CE 399 and found evidence of only two bullets. [1]

In 2004 the National Research Council reviewed the FBI’s bullet-lead method in criminal cases and found such compositional matches cannot reliably tie a fragment to a particular bullet or box. [2]

What we can’t tell you. The NRC review addressed FBI casework, not Guinn’s JFK tests directly.

The sources

  1. HSCA final report, part I-A: Oswald fired three shots ↗

    The committee’s review of the rifle, the wounds and Oswald.

  2. National Research Council: Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence, chapter 4, 2004 ↗

    Why compositional bullet-lead matches cannot single out one bullet.

The 2007 challenge

Are Carcano bullets as distinctive as assumed?

In 2007 Cliff Spiegelman and colleagues tested bullets reportedly from the same batch as those used in the assassination and found matches within a box much more likely than the House testimony said. One of their ten test bullets matched one or more assassination fragments. That, they wrote, means the matching fragments “could have come from three or more separate bullets.” They called for re-testing. [1]

The fragments were scanned in 3-D by the National Institute of Standards and Technology in 2019 so they could be studied without handling. [2]

What we can’t tell you. Re-testing the original fragments has not been done.

The sources

  1. Spiegelman and others, “Chemical and forensic analysis of JFK assassination bullet lots,” Annals of Applied Statistics, 2007 (arXiv) ↗

    Statistical challenge to the bullet-lead evidence that the fragments came from only two bullets.

  2. NIST: Kennedy assassination bullets preserved in digital form, December 2019 ↗

    3D scans of CE 399 and the fragments for researchers.

WHAT PEOPLE SAY ABOUT THIS FILE

The claims, rated.

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