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The Russia investigation and the “Clinton Plan”

Did the Clinton campaign start Russiagate? What Durham found, and the 2026 grand jury

← Interactive guide and chronology · All Clinton cases

Russia’s operation was real

Every investigation, including Republican-led ones, found Russia hacked and leaked to hurt Clinton.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller found that the GRU hacked the Clinton campaign and the DNC and released the material through DCLeaks, Guccifer 2.0 and WikiLeaks. In July 2018 a grand jury indicted 12 GRU officers. Mueller also said his investigation did not establish that the Trump campaign conspired with Russia. [1][3]

The Senate Intelligence Committee, then under Republican chairmanship, reached the same conclusion on the hacking in its bipartisan Volume 5. [2]

Saying “Russiagate was a hoax” mixes two things. The interference was real and documented. The claim of a Trump–Russia conspiracy was not established. Both statements are true at once.

The sources

  1. DOJ: report on Russian interference in the 2016 election ↗

    Mueller report. Volume I reconstructs hacking, dissemination and contacts while stating the investigation did not establish a Trump-campaign conspiracy with Russia. It is not simply the Steele dossier.

  2. Senate Intelligence Committee: final Russia report, Volume 5 ↗

    Bipartisan committee counterintelligence report. Findings about Russian activity, campaign contacts and WikiLeaks are separate from whether prosecutors proved an election conspiracy.

  3. DOJ: Indictment of twelve Russian intelligence officers for election hacking (2018) ↗

    Charging announcement. Indictment is an allegation rather than a jury conviction. Relevant to evidence of the email-hacking operation, not direct proof of Rich’s killer.

The “Clinton Plan” intelligence

Russian spies said Clinton approved a plan to tie Trump to Russia. Nobody has shown whether they were right.

In September 2020 Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe declassified this: in late July 2016 U.S. agencies “obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that” Clinton “had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against” Trump “by tying him to Putin and the Russians’ hacking.” CIA Director John Brennan’s handwritten notes record briefing President Obama on the “alleged approval by Hillary Clinton on July 26, 2016 of a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisors.” Ratcliffe added: “The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation or the extent to which the Russian intelligence analysis may reflect exaggeration or fabrication.” [1]

Durham said the intelligence “arguably suggested” Clinton-linked private actors were promoting a false or exaggerated narrative. He also found “no evidence” the FBI considered it while investigating Trump, and some agents were surprised to see it. That is a sharp criticism of the FBI. [2]

The appendix declassified in July 2025 discusses where the underlying Russian material came from and whether parts were composites or fabricated; it leaves authenticity unresolved. The administration’s press release reads it as proof of a plot; the document itself is more cautious. [3][4]

What we can’t tell you. The underlying Russian reports remain classified or unverified.

The sources

  1. DNI Ratcliffe letter to Sen. Graham declassifying the “Clinton Plan” intelligence, 29 Sep 2020 ↗

    Primary document. Says the intelligence community “does not know the accuracy of this allegation.”

  2. Special Counsel Durham: report on 2016 investigative activities, May 2023 ↗

    Official critical assessment of FBI investigative conduct. It includes a guilty plea by FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith and the Sussmann and Danchenko trial acquittals; critique is not a conviction of Clinton.

  3. Durham classified appendix, released July 31, 2025 ↗

    Original 29-page appendix, declassified July 2025. Pages 12–19 discuss provenance, overlapping language, a possible composite and unresolved authenticity.

  4. DOJ and CIA transmit the declassified Durham documents, July 31, 2025 ↗

    Primary announcement of release, including the administration’s interpretation. That interpretation is attributed rather than substituted for the appendix’s contents.

Who paid for the Steele dossier

The campaign and DNC did, through a law firm. They were fined for how they reported it.

The Clinton campaign and DNC paid the law firm Perkins Coie, which hired Fusion GPS, which hired former British spy Christopher Steele. The payments were reported as legal services. In 2022 the FEC accepted civil settlements: $8,000 from Hillary for America and $105,000 from the DNC, for misreporting the purpose of the spending. They did not admit the violation but agreed not to contest it. [1][2]

Durham found the FBI could not corroborate the dossier’s key claims and leaned on it anyway in surveillance applications. [3]

Funding opposition research is legal and common. What made this one matter is that unverified material reached the FBI and was used to seek a warrant. A fine for misreporting is not a criminal finding against Clinton. [2][3]

The sources

  1. FEC: enforcement matter 7449 and related matter 7291 ↗

    Official enforcement disposition records the reporting-purpose violations and accepted conciliation; foreign-national allegations had a separate dismissal outcome.

  2. FEC: DNC and Hillary for America conciliation agreements, February 2022 ↗

    Actual civil conciliation agreements: $105,000 DNC penalty and $8,000 Hillary for America penalty. These are not criminal convictions or verification of dossier allegations.

  3. Special Counsel Durham: report on 2016 investigative activities, May 2023 ↗

    Official critical assessment of FBI investigative conduct. It includes a guilty plea by FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith and the Sussmann and Danchenko trial acquittals; critique is not a conviction of Clinton.

  4. Senate Intelligence Committee: final Russia report, Volume 5 ↗

    Bipartisan committee counterintelligence report. Findings about Russian activity, campaign contacts and WikiLeaks are separate from whether prosecutors proved an election conspiracy.

Durham’s trials

One guilty plea, two acquittals, and a long report.

FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith pleaded guilty to altering an email used in a surveillance application. Michael Sussmann, a lawyer who worked for the Clinton campaign, was acquitted in 2022 of lying to the FBI about who he represented when he brought the Alfa Bank tip. Igor Danchenko, Steele’s main source, was acquitted of lying to the FBI. [1]

Durham’s report said the FBI opened Crossfire Hurricane on thin, uncorroborated intelligence and treated Trump-related leads differently from Clinton-related ones. Supporters call that vindication; critics note none of his trials produced a conviction tied to the campaign. Both are accurate. [1]

The sources

  1. Special Counsel Durham: report on 2016 investigative activities, May 2023 ↗

    Official critical assessment of FBI investigative conduct. It includes a guilty plea by FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith and the Sussmann and Danchenko trial acquittals; critique is not a conviction of Clinton.

The 2026 “grand conspiracy” grand jury

A Florida grand jury is investigating the Russia probe’s origins. No one has been charged.

NBC News reported that prosecutors in the Southern District of Florida, led by U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quiñones, have issued more than 130 subpoenas to a Fort Pierce grand jury, including one to James Comey on 19 March 2026. The court there is Judge Aileen Cannon’s. [1]

Joseph diGenova, appointed in April 2026 to help oversee the effort, resigned on 10 September 2026 without bringing any prosecutions, according to NBC. Former CIA Director John Brennan has been reported as a subject; he has not been charged. [2][3]

An investigation is not a finding. A separate 2025 indictment of Comey was dismissed in November 2025 because the prosecutor had been unlawfully appointed. This entry will be updated if charges are filed. [2]

What we can’t tell you. The grand jury’s work is secret; reporting relies on subpoenas and sources.

The sources

  1. NBC News: Comey subpoenaed in the Florida “grand conspiracy” probe, 2026 ↗

    Reporting on the Fort Pierce grand jury investigating the Russia-probe origins. No charges reported as of this edition.

  2. NBC News: Prosecutor who led “grand conspiracy” probe resigns without charging anyone, 10 Sep 2026 ↗

    Status as of September 2026: no prosecutions; probe continuing under Justice Department lawyers.

  3. AP: Justice Department investigation of John Brennan and the Russia assessment, 2026 ↗

    Wire report on the subpoenas and targets of the origins probe.

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