Business

Mars by 2024 and other deadlines

Musk’s promised dates, checked against what happened

The Boring Company’s test tunnel in Hawthorne, California, December 13, 2018. This is not the later Las Vegas system.
Steve Jurvetson · Source & image context ↗

RECORD / AT A GLANCE

Most stated deadlines missed

As predictions, his timelines have a poor record, and he has said himself that he is often wrong on timing. Calling them lies assumes intent; calling them plans ignores how often they move stock prices.

THE EVENTS / THE INVESTIGATION / THE STORY

The chronology.

READ THE FILE

Evidence & assessment.

Open an article for its evidence, labeled AI assessment and numbered sources. Read the complete static edition ↗

WHAT PEOPLE SAY ABOUT THIS FILE

The claims, rated.

3 claims people make about this file, each rated documented, partly true, disputed, unproven or false. Think a rating is wrong? Use Dispute or Support, or join the Discussion.

FALSE SpaceX, Starlink & Neuralink

“Musk had government permission for a New York–Washington tunnel.”

He said his tunneling company had government permission. Transit authorities in all four cities said they knew of no such agreement.

Who says it: Elon Musk.

The evidence in this file ↗ · On the full claims board ↗

All 161 rated claims ↗

OPEN THE RECORD

Sources & limits.

Numbered citations in each article identify the relevant sources. These records have different purposes and evidentiary weight.

  1. SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary, September 2017 (video) ↗

    His own presentation of Mars timelines.

  2. NASA: Humans to Mars ↗

    NASA’s own, slower framework.

  3. The Verge: Musk’s wildest predictions at Autonomy Day, 22 April 2019 ↗

    Contemporaneous report of the “million robotaxis” prediction.

  4. EBSCO Research Starter: Elon Musk, by Joe Bogdan (updated 2026) ↗

    A reference biography covering birth, education, companies, politics and family through 2026. A secondary summary; check numbers against filings.

  5. The Boring Company: Loop, accessed 21 October 2026 ↗

    Company description and targets.

  6. LVCVA: riding the convention-center Loop ↗

    Operator description of the working Las Vegas service.

← The Musk hub: biography, timeline and every file

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