A pre-election Gallup survey asked Nader supporters what they would do without him. In the national sample of 193 supporters, 43 percent selected Gore, 21 percent Bush, 21 percent would not vote, and the rest selected another option or gave no answer. That supports a potential net benefit to Gore, but not a transfer of every Nader vote. [1]
The survey was small, national and hypothetical. It cannot supply an exact Florida vote total in an election that never happened. Still, the difference between a large third-party vote and a tiny major-party margin makes it reasonable to investigate a spoiler effect. Florida recorded 97,488 Nader votes, compared with the 537-vote certified Bush lead. [2]
The word “stole” obscures this distinction. A lawful vote for a third-party candidate was not a ballot secretly removed from another candidate. Nor did either major party own those votes. The historical question is how the presence of an additional candidate affected the outcome under plurality voting, not whether those voters committed an irregularity by expressing their preference.